It was 60 days ago when Morgan Rogers was standing on the Sunderland turf, seeming perplexed as his coach scolded him over failing to anticipate a through-ball. At that point, with the team failed to win in six, the question was whether his displays were an indicator or the reason of the team's more general malaise.
“When Rogers netted his second… Emery tore off his coat, threw his arms wide, and bellowed in delight.”
On Sunday, however, the sideline response was decidedly more positive. When the England international curled home his second strike to reclaim his side's advantage, the Spanish tactician discarded his jacket, opened his arms and shouted in triumph. The Birmingham club marched on to a tenth straight victory , despite not winning any of their first six fixtures, are somehow a mere three points adrift of the leaders Arsenal.
Is This Team Legitimate Hopefuls?
That’s an exceptionally difficult query to address. Past precedent, the traditional standing of this institution, argues against it. Additionally, their performances haven't been entirely convincing in many games, while the victories have accumulated.
As per the data, on just two occasions has the side had an xG significantly higher than the opposition. For a side which has just won 10 in a row, Villa look weirdly vulnerable – but at the moment the tight outcomes are going in their favour.
The Rogers Recipe
Their recent policy looks like to exchange chances with an opponent before hoping their talisman to rescue them with two precise efforts. This occurred against Leeds, it occurred in London, and once more against United.
The initial strike originated from a superb shot, curled just inside the goal frame from a wide position. The follow-up goal was essentially a slight scruffier version of the opener capitalizing on a pass from Watkins.
“Much like Robben with his left, Rogers’ right foot has become a known threat that remains brutally unstoppable, regardless of anticipation.”
Can It Last?
Logic says not. Against United, Manchester United registered a greater number of attempts and more direct attempts. Villa have triumphed in eight consecutive games by just one goal. They have allowed goals in nearly all of those fixtures.
Regression to the mean could be the greatest opponent the club will encounter in the near future. The forward, surely, cannot keep on blasting the ball past despairing goalkeepers indefinitely.
A Case for Belief
Perhaps there is an alternative path whereby, instead of outcomes regressing to match displays, performances begin to trend towards results. Vital cogs could still find their top level.
- The centre-forward may begin to scoring again.
- The winger may rediscover the force he resembled during his peak.
- The injured centre-backs are set to return from injury, fortifying an occasionally vulnerable defence.
Maybe within that lies the seeds for a sustained push, but they surely can continue to depend solely on Morgan Rogers.
Savoring the Moment
Yet, nobody expected this. It seemed improbable Villa would sit in the top three for the holidays. And without a doubt earlier this season, no one envisioned Rogers by the end of the year would be leading a hunt for the title while establishing himself as a vital England player.
This winning streak is to be savoured exactly since it appears so improbable. When the match-winner positioned himself before the North End when the game ended leading the celebrations, he appeared to be thoroughly enjoying it. A feeling he has rightly earned. These spells are uncommon in the sport and must be appreciated.
