Ten years after the UK embarked on a rushed public vote that divided the nation and caused chaos, a advisory emerges from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the same might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is ready.
That represents the warning from two prominent writers from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a possibly contentious and transformative referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole said. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our islands remains extremely volatile."
New Title Aims to Provoke Discussion
The team have examined the governmental, economic and societal arguments for any structural alteration in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the matter with a tour of public talks that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everyone, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you land with an highly polarised community where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the victorious side lack clarity exactly what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim this point is imminent, and a group called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there could be a referendum.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language for and against unification has masked the shortage of informed dialogue, noted McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the concept but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to realise it is mostly absent. A great deal has taken place in universities but very few government figures or campaigners want to engage with even the fundamentals. To illustrate, what sort of state should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the book, none of the commentators supports unification or the status quo. They composes two essays that aim for neutrality in detailing the case for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling financial and social statistics, historical precedents and structural examples.
Discussions range over national emblems, levies, healthcare systems, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The goal is to educate and encourage dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there is still lacking a dialogue," stated O’Toole. "Dialogue implies an recognition of the concept that there may exist valid points on each side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where voters say they support unity but oppose greater financial contributions or introducing a different emblem to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin should work out what the offer from pro-unification movements is other than just declaring: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it might occur suddenly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a negligent official who declares: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid perspectives, he commented. "One side will prevail on this issue and the other side will eventually not succeed but each side has possesses something to learn from the alternative arguments."
Request for Wider Dialogue
Westminster needed to engage with the debate, stated O’Toole. "This involves your state. It is a British question as much as it is an Irish matter."
